河北环境工程学院学报

选取2001—2023年黄淮冬麦区40个城市面板数据,构建水资源安全评价体系,借助级差最大化组合赋权法、ARIMA-GM组合预测模型及空间自相关性模型,分析黄淮冬麦区水资源安全水平、未来演化趋势及空间集聚特征。研究发现:2001—2023年黄淮冬麦区水资源安全水平呈现波动上升态势,但多年处于Ⅲ级临界安全状态,整体水平并不乐观。预测得出2024—2028年水资源安全水平呈现“上升—下降—上升”波动形式,整体呈现上升态势。2026年水资源水平相对邻近年份较低;安全水平呈现显著的空间正相关性,“低-低”集聚格局受到降水量影响;人均水资源占有量是关键评价指标,工业用水量、人均GDP、人均年用水量以及小麦单产是重要评价指标。

The panel data from 40 cities in the Huang-Huai winter wheat region from 2001 to 2023 were selected. A water resource security evaluation system was constructed using the optimal combination weighting model with differential maximization, the ARIMA-GM prediction model, and the spatial autocorrelation model. This analysis aims to examine the water resource security level,future trends, and spatial clustering characteristics of the Huang-Huai winter wheat region. The conclusions are as follows: From 2001 to 2023, the water resource security level in the Huang-Huai winter wheat region showed a fluctuating upward trend, but it remained at a critical level of grade III for many years, indicating an overall less optimistic situation. From 2024 to 2028, the water resource security level exhibited a "rise-decline-rise" pattern, showing an overall upward trend, with 2026 being relatively lower compared to previous years. The security level showed a significant spatial positive correlation, and the "low-low" clustering pattern influenced by precipitation levels.Per capita water resources availability is a key evaluation indicator, while industrial water consumption, per capita GDP, per capita annual water use, and wheat yield are also important indicators.