河北环境工程学院学报

基于2013—2023年安徽省16个市的相关数据,借助DPSIR模型构建水生态风险评价指标体系,运用综合指数法测算水生态风险指数,通过时空地理加权回归模型识别关键影响因素,择优选择GM-ARIMA模型预测2024—2028年水生态风险发展趋势。结果表明:2013—2023年,安徽省水生态风险指数呈波动下降态势,由0.528下降至0.494,水生态风险水平由高风险转向较低风险;空间分布呈现“北降南稳”特征,皖北城市风险等级普遍下降,皖南稳定于低至中等风险;工业废水排放总量、万元GDP用水量、污水管网密度是影响水生态风险的关键因素;预测2024—2028年水生态风险指数呈下降趋势,且皖北各市水生态风险水平小于皖南各市。

To scientifically assess the water ecological risk level in Anhui Province and analyze its spatio-temporal evolution laws,key influencing factors and future changing trends,this study,constructed a water ecological risk evaluation index system with the DPSIR model and calculated the water ecological risk index by using the comprehensive index method,based on the relevant data of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2023.The key influencing factors were identified through the spatio-temporal geo weighted regression model,and the GM-ARIMA model was selected preferentially to predict the development trend of water ecological risks from 2024 to 2028.The results show that from 2013 to 2023,the water ecological risk index in Anhui Province has shown a fluctuating downward trend,dropping from 0.528 to 0.494,and the water ecological risk level has shifted from high risk to low risk.The spatial distribution shows the feature of "decreasing in the north and stabilizing in the south".The risk levels of cities in northern Anhui generally decline,while those in southern Anhui remain stable at low to medium risks.The total amount of industrial wastewater discharge,water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP,and the density of sewage pipe networks are the key factors influencing water ecological risks.It is predicted that the water ecological risk index will show a downward trend from 2024 to 2028,and the water ecological risk level of each city in northern Anhui will be lower than that of each city in southern Anhui.