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采用超效率SBM模型对黄河流域城市碳排放绩效进行测定,借助马尔可夫和空间马尔可夫转移矩阵,从城市尺度探究黄河流域城市碳排放绩效的时空演变特征,并对未来流域内城市碳排放绩效发展格局进行预测。研究表明:黄河流域城市碳排放绩效均值呈现上升趋势,但总体水平相对滞后,仍存在较大改善空间;在空间上,黄河流域城市碳排放绩效存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,且类型转移具有稳定性,在一定地域范围内溢出效应明显;长期来看,黄河流域碳减排效率将向高水平演进;低绩效邻域会制约本地发展,而高绩效邻域则起到促进作用。据此,黄河流域应建立跨区域协同减排机制,实施分区精准管控与长效动态评估,以突破低效锁定、推动全域低碳转型。
Abstract：The super-efficiency SBM model was employed to evaluate the carbon emission performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin. With the help of Markov and spatial Markov transition matrices, it explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the carbon emission performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin at the urban scale and predicts the future development pattern of urban carbon emission performance within the basin. Studies show that the average carbon emission performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin is on the rise, but the overall level is relatively lagging behind and still has considerable room for improvement. Spatially, there is a "club convergence" phenomenon in the carbon emission performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin, and the type transfer is stable, with obvious spillover effects within a certain geographical range. In the long term, the carbon reduction efficiency in the Yellow River Basin will evolve to a high level. Low-performance neighborhoods will restrict local development, while high-perfor mance neighborhoods play a promoting role. Based on this, the Yellow River Basin should establish a cross-regional collaborative emission reduction mechanism, implement precise regional control and long-term dynamic assessment, in order to break through inefficient lock-in and promote the low-carbon transformation of the entire region.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13358/j.issn.2096-9309.2025.0912.04
中图分类号:F124.5;X321
引用信息:
[1]杨熙雯,胡西武.基于超效率SBM模型的黄河流域碳排放绩效时空特征及预测[J].河北环境工程学院学报,2026,36(02):1-7.DOI:10.13358/j.issn.2096-9309.2025.0912.04.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42461034)
2026-01-16
2026-01-16
2026-01-16